Global manganese mining market Forecast Snapshot 2025 - 2033

Global manganese mining market Overview

The global manganese mining market covers the extraction and beneficiation of manganese ore through to its first commercial sale. It includes both metallurgical-grade ore used in ferroalloy production for the steel industry and battery-grade ore processed into high-purity manganese compounds for lithium-ion battery cathodes. The market does not include downstream ferroalloy smelting, chemical manufacturing, recycling, or other battery metals such as cobalt and nickel.

The market was valued at USD 20.51 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.87% from 2026 to 2033, reaching approximately USD 71.38 billion by 2033. Growth is expected to be strongest during the middle years of the forecast period, driven by rising steel production and increasing demand for electric vehicle batteries, before gradually moderating toward the end of the forecast window.

Key Takeaways

1. Supply constraints caused by logistics bottlenecks in South Africa and weather disruptions in Australia are tightening near-term manganese ore availability. These challenges are supporting market value growth despite a 5.4% overall contraction in South African mining output in May 2026 and South32's guidance cut of more than 6% for Australian manganese production.
2. Policy-driven supply expansion is expected to strengthen long-term market growth. India's eighth tranche of critical mineral auctions, covering 20 mineral blocks including manganese, a new mining concession in Oman with Manganese Majan Company, and streamlined deep-seabed permitting in the United States are expected to add new production capacity after 2028, supporting the optimistic CAGR scenario of 19.37%.
3. Rising demand for battery-grade manganese is creating a premium market segment. However, environmental allegations at a Ghana mine linked to Tesla present reputational and operational risks for EV-related supply chains. According to the available information, more than 150 community members interviewed reported chronic health problems and exposure to toxic metals.
4. The baseline CAGR of 16.87% assumes that logistics constraints are gradually resolved and production recovers steadily. The conservative CAGR scenario of 14.37% reflects the possibility of persistent supply disruptions, weather-related challenges, and regulatory uncertainty affecting market growth.

• Year-by-Year Market Values and Growth Rates

  Baseline manganese mining market values and annual growth rates, 2025–2033

  Year	Market Value (billion USD)	Annual Growth Rate (%)
  2025	20.51	—
  2026	23.97	16.87
  2027	28.11	17.29
  2028	33.17	18.02
  2029	39.34	18.60
  2030	46.31	17.70
  2031	53.97	16.55
  2032	62.34	15.51
  2033	71.38	14.50

Growth Shape and Scenario Analysis

Drivers, Restraints, Opportunities, and Threats

Key Drivers

Supply Tightness from Production Disruptions and Logistics Bottlenecks

Policy-Led Supply Diversification

Battery-Grade Manganese Demand Growth

Restraints

Operational and Weather-Related Disruptions

Energy Costs and Smelter Capacity Rationalisation

Logistics Infrastructure Constraints

Opportunities

Battery-Grade Supply Chain Premium

New Supply Development in Diversified Jurisdictions

Infrastructure Investment as a Competitive Differentiator

Threats

Extreme Weather Disruptions in Concentrated Production Geographies

Environmental and Social Compliance Risk

Chinese Demand and Production Data Gap

Global Manganese Mining Market Segmentation

Regional Insights

Leading Companies in the Market

Why the Market Is Moving Upward

Methodology and Research Approach

Scope of Analysis

This chapter covers competition in manganese ore mining and primary smelting among publicly disclosed major producers — Eramet, MOIL Limited, South32, and Vale — and the impact of operational disruptions caused by weather and power costs near mid-2026. It excludes recycling, manganese chemical manufacturing, battery cathode production, and junior mining companies due to insufficient granular data in the supplied evidence.

Key Takeaways

1. Eramet’s Gabon operations achieved a 16% increase in ore transport in Q1 2026 to 1.6 Mt, but currency headwinds and rising input costs limited revenue growth to 2%.
2. MOIL posted a record Q1 production of 5.08 lakh tonnes, signalling strong growth from India’s largest domestic manganese supplier.
3. Transalloys’ closure of South Africa’s last manganese smelter in July 2026 eliminates domestic processing capacity, endangering 600 direct jobs and 7,000 downstream roles and threatening R6bn in investment, and shifts the value chain toward raw ore exports.
4. South32 cut its full-year Australia manganese guidance by 6% to 3 Mt after cyclone disruption, while South African output grew modestly.
5. Rising power costs in South Africa create a structural disadvantage for smelting, potentially concentrating downstream processing in lower-cost regions.

Production Growth and Regional Divergence

Eramet’s operations in Gabon represent a clear growth vector. In Q1 2026, the company transported 1.6 million tonnes of manganese ore, a 16% increase over Q1 2025, driven by successful rail debottlenecking. External ore sales rose 10% to 1.4 Mt, and ore turnover increased 8% to €271 million, demonstrating healthy volume-driven demand. However, the headline growth masks margin compression from currency and freight costs, which is examined in the following section.

Simultaneously, MOIL Limited, India’s largest domestic manganese ore supplier, posted a record-breaking operational performance. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27 (April-June 2026), MOIL achieved production of 5.08 lakh tonnes, a massive operational milestone. The company scaled its output month-over-month from 3.56 lakh tonnes to 3.68 lakh tonnes across the quarter, reflecting steady capacity augmentation across its underground and opencast mining properties.

In contrast, South32’s operations present a mixed picture. Its Australian manganese unit faced significant weather disruptions from Tropical Cyclone Narelle, producing 589,000 wmt in Q3 2026. This forced a downward revision of full-year FY2026 guidance by over 6% to 3 million wmt. South32’s South African operations fared better, producing 500,000 wmt, up from 476,000 wmt in the prior year, resulting in combined group output of 1.09 million wmt for the quarter.

Compare production volumes, growth trajectories, and capacity events across major manganese operations. Eramet Q1 2026 report; MOIL Limited corporate press release; South32 Q3 2026 report; Business Day reporting on Transalloys. Absolute volumes, year-on-year changes, and structural capacity shifts.

Cost Pressures and Capacity Closures Restructure Supply

Production volume trends alone do not define the competitive landscape; cost structures and external shocks are actively reshaping the playing field and determining which participants can compete effectively.

Despite strong volume growth, Eramet’s margins are under pressure. Its FOB cash cost in Gabon rose to $2.5 per dmtu, up from $2.4 in Q1 2025. More significantly, an unfavourable US dollar currency effect created an 11% headwind on revenues, and rising sea freight costs added an 8% drag on the average selling price. While total manganese activity turnover held steady at €464 million, a 2% increase, the alloy segment declined 7%, penalised by mix and currency effects. This indicates that the benefits of operational scale are being partially eroded by macro input inflation.

The most severe competitive shock originates from South Africa, where escalating electricity costs have structurally undermined the viability of domestic processing. Transalloys, the country’s last manganese smelter, ceased production in July 2026. The company stated it was left with no choice after years of mounting financial losses, frustrated by the slow pace of electricity tariff relief from Eskom compared to its ferrochrome peers. This suspension places approximately 600 direct jobs and 7,000 downstream roles at risk and threatens R6 billion in investment. Unless a permanent solution is secured by the end of July 2026, Transalloys faces permanent closure. This event fundamentally shifts the South African value chain from domestic smelting toward raw ore exports, eliminating a key downstream customer for domestic miners and concentrating smelting capacity in lower-cost regions.

South32’s Australian operations add a supply-side risk dimension. The impact of Tropical Cyclone Narelle demonstrates the vulnerability of concentrated production in cyclone-prone regions. While the company’s South African operations showed modest growth, the overall group outlook is constrained by this weather exposure.

These dynamics create distinct competitive advantages. Producers with access to low-cost ore, captive power, or favourable currency regimes are better positioned to capture market share, while those reliant on expensive grid power or exposed to severe weather face structural handicaps.

Assumptions and Coverage Limitations

This chapter is based on publicly disclosed production and cost data from a limited set of companies (Eramet, MOIL, South32, and Vale) and a single news report on Transalloys’ closure. No comprehensive market share data by company is available; any competitor share implied by growth rates is not verified. Vale reported Q1 2026 manganese production and sales, but the supplied packet contains no numeric details, so Vale’s position could not be assessed. Data periods are not uniform: Eramet and South32 use calendar Q1 2026 (January-March), while MOIL uses Indian fiscal Q1 (April-June 2026). Forward guidance is limited to South32’s one cut; no demand-side or pricing outlook is included. Junior mining companies, battery-grade manganese demand quantification, and recycling market impacts are not covered due to insufficient granular data in the supplied evidence.

Value Chain: Manganese Mining

The manganese mining value chain centres on the extraction, beneficiation, and transport of manganese ore from mine to downstream consumers—primarily ferroalloy smelters and, ultimately, steelmakers and battery-material producers. The chain’s near‑term dynamics are shaped by supply concentration in Gabon and South Africa, where operational and logistical pressures affect ore availability, while demand growth is shifting toward alloy producers in India and other non‑China markets.

Key takeaways

1. Gabon ore production fell 11 % year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, but transported volumes rose 16 % due to logistics improvements, keeping delivered supply relatively stable.
2. South Africa’s manganese ore output declined 5.8 % in the three‑month period ended May 2026, contributing −0.5 percentage points to the broader mining slump.
3. Eramet’s full‑year 2026 transport target (6.4–6.8 Mt) implies a modest annual increase; delivery hinges on Moanda mine recovery and continued logistics performance.
4. Demand growth for manganese ore in 2026 is expected from alloy producers in India and other non‑China markets, partially offsetting weakness elsewhere.
5. The divergence between mine output and delivered volumes in Gabon highlights the importance of logistics and inventory management in ore supply security.

Supply Concentration and Regional Production Trends

Global manganese ore supply is heavily concentrated in a few jurisdictions. The two largest producing regions—Gabon (through Eramet’s Comilog subsidiary) and South Africa—show distinct production trajectories in early‑2026 data, revealing different pressures on each.

Gabon: mine output declines, logistics offset

In the first quarter of 2026, Eramet’s Moanda mine in Gabon produced 1.59 million tonnes of manganese ore, an 11 % decrease compared with the same period in 2025. Despite this decline, transported ore volumes reached 1.61 million tonnes, up 16 % year‑on‑year, driven by improvements in rail transport and progress on railway renovation. External ore sales rose 10 % to 1.36 million tonnes, indicating that market deliveries remained resilient even as mine output softened.

Eramet confirmed its full‑year 2026 transport target of 6.4–6.8 million tonnes, with an FOB cash cost of $2.4–$2.6 per dry metric tonne unit. The company’s ability to move more ore than it produced in Q1 suggests that inventory drawdown and logistics efficiency are buffering near‑term supply to customers.

South Africa: output contraction persists

Statistics South Africa reported that the country’s total mining production fell 5.4 % year‑on‑year in May 2026. In the three‑month period ended May 2026, seasonally adjusted manganese ore production declined 5.8 %, contributing −0.5 percentage points to the quarterly mining output contraction. This makes manganese ore one of the largest drags on South Africa’s mining sector, alongside other metallic minerals and coal.

The May 2026 data shows a continued downward trend; on a month‑on‑month basis, overall mining output fell 5.2 % from April to May, following a 3.1 % rise in April. The quarterly decline in manganese ore underscores supply risk from a producer that, alongside Gabon, accounts for a significant share of global seaborne ore.

Map the supported manganese ore value flow from mine through transport to end markets, overlaying key supplied metrics for Gabon and South Africa. Surviving value-chain claims: Eramet Q1 2026 operational data and South Africa May 2026 mining production statistics. Participants (Gabon/Comilog, South Africa), stages (mine production, transport, external sales, downstream alloy production), and the logistics buffer that partially offsets mine output declines.

Logistics, Downstream Demand, and Market Implications

The supply‑side data from Gabon and South Africa connect to downstream demand and price/cost dynamics through the role of logistics and the shift in ore consumption toward non‑China markets.

Transportation as a buffer

In Gabon, the divergence between mine output (−11 %) and transported volumes (+16 %) indicates that logistics improvements and inventory management can temporarily insulate customers from production dips. Eramet’s rail renovation programme and operational execution allowed the company to deliver more ore than it mined in Q1 2026, keeping external sales growth at 10 %. However, the sustainability of this buffer depends on continued logistics performance and eventual recovery of Moanda mine output to meet the 6.4–6.8 Mt annual transport target.

Demand outlook: India and non‑China markets

Eramet’s assessment for 2026 is that manganese ore demand will increase slightly, driven by higher alloy production in India and other non‑China markets. The company’s exposure to this downstream demand is vertically integrated: it operates six manganese alloy production sites across Norway, the United States, France, and Gabon, giving it a direct link to ferroalloy consumption outside China. The stated demand growth from Indian alloy producers and other non‑China markets partially offsets any weakness in Chinese steel production, though the available data provide no quantitative forecasts for those end‑use segments.

Cost floor and supply‑chain resilience

Eramet’s FOB cash cost guidance of $2.4–$2.6/dmtu for Gabon ore establishes a production‑cost floor for that jurisdiction. For South Africa, the quarterly manganese ore decline of −5.8 % and its −0.5 p.p. contribution to the mining sector contraction highlight the ore’s significance as a drag on South Africa’s production base.

The combination of lower Gabon mine output (partly offset by logistics) and persistent South African decline suggests that global ore supply in early‑2026 is under pressure from the two largest seaborne sources. Near‑term security depends on the ability of Gabon’s logistics buffer to hold and on a stabilisation of South African output, while demand growth from India and other non‑China markets may tighten the market if production fails to catch up.

Key takeaways

1. Battery-grade manganese projects face significant capital cost escalation (88% at K.Hill) and extended timelines, but still offer post-tax IRRs near 20%.
2. Exxaro’s R10.6 billion acquisition consolidates South African manganese assets and targets logistics cost reduction of about 37% per tonne by shifting from road to rail.
3. South African miners are pooling resources to bid for a new 16‑million‑tonne export terminal at Ngqura, aiming to alleviate bottlenecks that account for 43% of FOB costs.
4. Government policy support via mineral auctions (India) and rising exploration expenditure (Australia, +6.3% quarterly) indicate growing confidence in future manganese demand, though new supply will take years to materialize.
5. Project development milestones for K.Hill (construction early 2027, production 2029) align with expected EV battery demand growth but remain contingent on securing full financing for the US$535 million initial capex.

Battery‑grade manganese project financing

The definitive feasibility study (DFS) for Giyani Metals’ 100‑owned K.Hill battery‑grade manganese project in Botswana, announced in May 2026 and filed as a NI 43‑101 technical report on 10 July 2026, provides the most detailed public investment case for a greenfield battery‑grade manganese operation. The DFS, prepared in constant January 2026 US dollars and discounted at 8% to a planned start date of 1 April 2027, reports a post‑tax net present value of US$481.5 million (US$482 million in the technical report) and a post‑tax internal rate of return of 20.3%. Net free cash flow over the 25‑year life of mine is estimated at US$1.6 billion, with an operating margin of 46% and manganese recovery of 87%.

The economics have shifted materially from the 2023 preliminary economic assessment (PEA). Initial capital expenditure rose 88% to US$535 million, the internal rate of return fell by 9 percentage points to 20.3%, total manganese production declined 57% to 1.5 million tonnes, and the mine life was cut by more than half to 25 years. The higher capital requirement—and the accompanying increase in development risk—is reflected in the financing structure being assembled.

Financing sources and remaining gap

Giyani has secured or advanced several financing instruments. South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) provided US$16 million in debt finance. African Rainbow Minerals, through its ARCH Emerging Markets Partners, acquired a 19.99% equity stake and a royalty agreement. A letter of intent for potential financing of US$225 million was issued by the Export‑Import Bank of the United States. The total initial capex of US$535 million therefore still requires additional funding; the company is courting global strategic partners and has not disclosed the amount or timing of remaining capital commitments. The IDC debt, ARM equity‑plus‑royalty, and Exim Bank LOI represent a blend of concessional debt, corporate equity, and export credit agency support.

Development timeline

The DFS outlines a staged path: construction could begin in early 2027, commissioning in late 2028, and process plant ramp‑up in 2029. The technical report (NI 43‑101) was filed on 10 July 2026, confirming the DFS results. No front‑end engineering and design (FEED) contracts or construction financing have been announced. The project is positioned to supply high‑purity manganese sulphate monohydrate and high‑purity manganese oxide to the global battery materials market, but the 88% capital cost increase and extended timeline raise the bar for final investment decision.

Show the step change in capital intensity, IRR compression, and reduced production scale between the 2023 preliminary economic assessment and the 2026 definitive feasibility study. Giyani Metals DFS announcement and supporting evidence. Bar chart comparing post‑tax NPV (US$M), IRR (%), initial capex (US$M), mine life (years), and total manganese production (million tonnes) for the two study periods, with percentage changes annotated.

Corporate consolidation and logistics infrastructure

South Africa’s manganese landscape has been reshaped by Exxaro Resources’ acquisition of select manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH, concluded on 27 February 2026 for R10.6 billion in cash funded from available reserves. Through wholly‑owned subsidiaries, Exxaro now holds 100% of Ntsimbintle Mining (which owns 50.1% of the Tshipi Borwa Mine, with the remaining 49.9% held by Jupiter), 19.99% of Jupiter, 100% of Ntsimbintle Marketing, and 9% of Hotazel Manganese Mines. The deal makes Exxaro the fourth‑largest manganese producer in South Africa and gives it control over a world‑class resource base of about 163 million tonnes at Tshipi Borwa.

Logistics cost reduction

Integration of these assets is explicitly tied to logistics optimization. At Exxaro’s Capital Markets Day on 22 June 2026, management announced plans to shift more than 1.5 million tonnes of manganese freight from road to rail. Currently, 46% of Tshipi Borwa’s annual volumes (3.5 million tonnes) move by road through the ports of Gqeberha and Saldanha. Road transport costs are about 37% higher than rail costs, and logistics account for 43% of free‑on‑board (FOB) export costs. Exxaro is engaging with Transnet Freight Rail for additional capacity; full rail conversion would meaningfully improve FOB margins, though no capital expenditure figure for the modal shift has been disclosed.

New export terminal bid

In March 2026, the Manganese Producers Consortium (MPC)—whose members include African Rainbow Minerals and Assmang—announced it would bid for the design, build, construction, and operation of the Ngqura Manganese Ore Export Terminal. Transnet is expected to issue a request for quotation around April 2026 for the terminal, which would add 16 million tonnes of manganese export capacity. The MPC intends to partner with Transnet as a joint‑venture partner. The bid reflects a coordinated industry effort to relieve port and rail bottlenecks that currently constrain South African manganese export competitiveness. No bid value or timeline for terminal commissioning has been disclosed.

Policy‑led exploration and capacity expansion

Government‑backed mineral auctions and rising exploration expenditure signal growing industry confidence in future manganese demand, though the supply response will be gradual.

India’s critical mineral auctions

In July 2026, the Indian Ministry of Mines launched the eighth tranche of e‑auctions for critical and strategic mineral blocks. Twenty blocks across nine states were offered—13 newly identified and 7 re‑bid. This brings the total number of critical mineral blocks offered since the programme began to 88, of which 56 have been successfully auctioned. The statement does not specify how many of the 20 blocks are manganese, but manganese is listed among the minerals targeted for clean energy technologies, electric mobility, and advanced manufacturing. The auctions are part of India’s strategy to secure domestic supply of raw materials for battery and steel value chains.

Australian exploration expenditure

Mineral exploration expenditure in Australia rose 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the March 2026 quarter to A$1,093.7 million, and was up 16.1% year‑on‑year. The trend estimate (which smooths volatility) increased 3.8% quarter‑on‑quarter to A$1,079.3 million. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics data is aggregate and does not provide a manganese‑specific breakdown. The largest movements were in gold (−5.8%) and iron ore (+5.0%). The overall increase in exploration spending suggests a positive environment for future manganese discoveries, but the direct link to manganese investment cannot be isolated from the aggregate figures.

Together, the Indian auctions and Australian exploration data point to policy and market support for new supply, but both are early‑stage: auctioned blocks require years of permitting and development, and exploration expenditure is a lead indicator rather than a commitment to mine construction.

Emerging technologies for low-grade and sustainable manganese processing

Declining ore grades in established mining regions are spurring research into beneficiation and extraction methods that can economically upgrade lower-quality resources and reduce environmental footprint.

Physical beneficiation of siliceous ores

Researchers at the University of Peshawar, Pakistan, published a 2026 study combining petrography, geochemistry and X‑ray diffraction to design an integrated beneficiation flowsheet for low-grade manganese ores from the Mohmand district. The ores, containing braunite and pyrolusite as the main manganese minerals with quartz as the dominant gangue, were subjected to gravity and magnetic separation. At coarser grain sizes, the manganese content was elevated from 24 wt % to 43.6 wt %, and the Mn:Fe ratio was substantially improved. The study concluded that such physical methods are effective for upgrading siliceous ores.

Microwave-roasting for iron–manganese separation

A separate 2026 paper published in Minerals Engineering (Qin et al.) introduced a microwave-roasting and pulverized-coal synergistic recovery technology for iron‑manganese ore. The method uses mineral phase transformation theory to selectively separate iron and manganese minerals. While the published source does not disclose specific recovery percentages, the approach aims to improve the efficiency of iron‑manganese separation compared to conventional roasting.

Biomass‑reductant hydrometallurgical leaching

Ma et al. (2026) described a hydrometallurgical process that uses bamboo powder as a biomass reductant in sulfuric acid to leach manganese from pyrolusite. Under optimised conditions—90 °C, 5 h leaching time, 3.5 mol/L H₂SO₄, a 2:1 ore‑to‑biomass ratio, and a 5:1 liquid‑to‑solid ratio—the manganese reduction efficiency reached 97.80 %. The authors present this as a circular‑economy solution for low‑carbon manganese extraction.

Hydrogen‑aluminium reduction (HAlMan) process

The HAlMan project consortium has released a 3D interactive model of its hydrogen‑aluminothermic reduction process for manganese production. By replacing carbon with hydrogen and integrating secondary aluminium sources, the process aims to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions and energy consumption while supporting circular resource use. The consortium copyright spans 2024‑2026, indicating the process is at a late demonstration or early design stage; no production‑scale data have been published.

Visualise the reported metrics for the three academic studies: Peshawar integrated beneficiation (grade improvement from 24 % to 43.6 % Mn), bamboo‑powder leaching (97.80 % Mn reduction efficiency), and microwave‑roasting (no recovery data available). University of Peshawar study (Acta Geodynamica et Geomaterialia, 2026), Ma et al. study (Quarterly, 2026), Qin et al. study (Minerals Engineering, 2026). Two data points with a note that the third study did not provide a recovery percentage in the available source.

Technology adoption in current manganese operations

Major producers and equipment suppliers are deploying incremental innovations to improve throughput, lower costs, and deliver higher‑purity products for the battery sector.

Transport and throughput improvements at Eramet

Eramet’s Q1 2026 report showed that rail transport of manganese ore in Gabon rose 16 % year‑on‑year to 1.6 Mt, driven by ongoing investments to debottleneck capacity. External ore sales increased 10 % to 1.4 Mt, while the FOB cash cost (ex‑export duties) held at $2.5/dmtu, up 5 % from Q1 2025. The company confirmed full‑year guidance of 6.4‑6.8 Mt of transported ore.

South32 output and weather disruptions

South32’s March 2026 quarter produced 589,000 wet metric tonnes (wmt) from Australia (versus zero in the prior‑year period when the concentrator was paused) and combined with South African operations for total output of 1.09 Mt wmt. However, wet‑season rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Narelle forced a temporary halt and evacuation, prompting a 6 % reduction in full‑year Australia guidance to 3 Mt wmt.

X‑ray ore sorting for pre‑concentration

HeFei Obote Automation Equipment Co. completed a series of manganese ore sorting tests using its proprietary X‑ray sorting technology. The equipment is designed to pre‑reject waste rock in the initial processing stage, thereby reducing the load on downstream beneficiation and upgrading ore grade. While specific grade improvements were not disclosed, the tests demonstrate a pathway to lower processing costs.

High‑purity EMM and HPMSM production

Manganese Metal Company (MMC) in South Africa operates the world’s largest selenium‑free electrolytic manganese metal plant, producing 99.9 % pure EMM. Over 90 % of output is exported to more than 20 countries, with growing supply to the lithium‑ion battery industry. In a major milestone for non‑Chinese supply chains, JordProxa and MMC achieved hot commissioning of the first commercial high‑purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM) crystallisation plant in Africa. This plant addresses the stringent purity requirements for battery‑grade manganese sulphate, marking a significant step in diversifying the EV battery materials supply chain.

Map the value chain from mining through beneficiation, sorting, transport, and refining to final products, highlighting reported milestones: Eramet +16 % ore transport, South32 1.09 Mt quarter output, HeFei Obote X‑ray sorting tests, MMC 99.9 % EMM, and JordProxa HPMSM plant hot commissioning. Eramet Q1 2026 report, South32 March 2026 quarterly update, HeFei Obote LinkedIn post, MMC company profile (manganese.org), JordProxa announcement. Process steps, participant names, key volumes/purity levels, and the milestone of first non‑Chinese HPMSM crystallisation plant.\

Export Infrastructure and Logistics Risk

South Africa’s ability to export manganese ore is structurally constrained by capacity at the Ngqura export terminal in the Eastern Cape. In March 2026, a consortium of South African manganese miners—the Manganese Producers Consortium (MPC), which includes Assmang, a subsidiary of African Rainbow Minerals (ARM)—announced its intention to bid for the design, build, construction, and operation of a dedicated Ngqura Manganese Ore Export Terminal. State-owned logistics operator Transnet is expected to invite formal bids around April 2026 as part of broader reforms to open rail and port infrastructure to private investment.

According to ARM, the planned terminal would add approximately 16 million metric tons of annual manganese export capacity, directly addressing transport constraints that have slowed mineral shipments. The bid represents a joint venture between the MPC and Transnet. The timing of capacity addition remains uncertain, as the process is in the bidding stage, but the proposal signals the mining industry’s recognition of a bottleneck that threatens South Africa’s position as a top global manganese producer. Any delay in terminal construction or operation would continue to limit export volumes and could affect supply commitments to steel and battery end-users.

Operational and Production Risks

Multiple disruptions at key production nodes have reduced the reliability of global manganese supply in 2026. In Australia, South32’s manganese operations faced a production cut as the diversified miner revised its fiscal 2026 guidance for the Australia manganese unit to 3 million wet metric tons (wmt) in April 2026, down over 6% from the previously announced guidance. The reduction followed cyclone disruptions from wet-season rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which forced a temporary halt at the Gemco mine in the Northern Territory and evacuation of non-essential personnel. For the March quarter, Australia Manganese produced 589,000 wmt, compared to no output in the same period a year earlier when the primary concentrator was paused. The cyclone disruption directly affected high-grade manganese ore supply, tightening near-term availability for steel and battery markets.

In South Africa, the risk of permanent domestic ferromanganese capacity loss materialised in July 2026 when Transalloys, the country’s last manganese smelter, fully stopped ferroalloys production at its Mpumalanga plant. The company warned that unless a sustainable electricity tariff solution is agreed with Eskom, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, and the Department of Electricity and Energy by July 31, the smelter will close permanently. Section 189 consultations and a collective retrenchment agreement have already been concluded. The shutdown places about 600 permanent jobs and an estimated 7,000 downstream livelihoods at risk. If permanent, the closure would shift value addition and employment offshore, leaving South Africa solely as an ore exporter.

Contrasting these negative signals, South Africa’s official mining production data for May 2026 showed that manganese ore output rose 8.7% year-on-year, while overall mining output fell 5.4%. The decline in overall production—the steepest since February 2025—was driven by iron ore (-12.7%), coal (-6.1%), platinum group metals (-4.4%), and other commodities. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, mining output dropped 5.2% in May. The divergence between rising manganese ore production and broad sector contraction suggests that manganese’s operational stress is concentrated in downstream smelting and in weather-exposed jurisdictions, while some mine-level output in South Africa remains resilient. However, systemic constraints such as logistics bottlenecks and energy costs may undermine future consistency.

Environmental and Reputational Risk

An investigation by Global Witness alleged that a manganese mine in Ghana supplying material critical to EV battery technology is creating toxic waste that endangers local communities. The investigation involved meetings with more than 150 people living near the mine, who reported chronic health problems and poisoned water supplies. A study by Dr. Emmanuel Daanoba Sunkari, cited in the investigation, found that mine pit water was highly concentrated with toxic metals such as arsenic, which were seeping into surface water and groundwater. Ingesting the manganese wastewater could cause cancer, stillbirths, and DNA alteration in unborn children. In November 2025, dozens of community members interviewed testified to skin, eye, and breathing conditions.

The mine is alleged to be linked to Tesla as a supplier of material for electric vehicle batteries. If these allegations are substantiated, the mine could face regulatory action, community opposition, or supply chain audits by EV manufacturers. This risk adds reputational exposure for battery-grade manganese supply chains, particularly those marketed as responsible or sustainable. The outcome of any regulatory review or corporate due diligence process remains uncertain, but the allegations themselves create a source of reputational and operational risk that may affect off-take agreements and investor confidence.

Key takeaways

1. NOAA’s streamlined deep seabed mining regulations, effective January 21, 2026, reduce the two-step permitting process for U.S. entities, potentially accelerating deep seabed manganese projects.
2. The U.S. Forest Service’s draft approval for South32’s Hermosa mine (March 2026) paves the way for the only advanced manganese project in the United States, supporting critical mineral self‑sufficiency.
3. India’s eighth tranche auction of 20 critical mineral blocks, including manganese, brings the total offered to 88 with 56 already auctioned, reflecting growing industry confidence in India’s mining reforms.
4. Gabon’s firm insistence on the 2029 raw manganese export ban, despite energy concerns, forces operators to invest in domestic refining or risk losing access to the country’s 9.4 million ton export stream.

US Permitting Streamlining and Project Acceleration

The United States is actively reducing regulatory barriers for both deep seabed and domestic manganese projects in 2026, improving the investment outlook for domestic supply.

NOAA deep seabed mining regulation update

Under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), NOAA issued a final rule effective January 21, 2026, revising regulations for exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits (91 FR 13). The rule consolidates the previously two‑step sequential process into a single application pathway, updating regulations that had not been meaningfully revised since the 1980s. This change applies to any U.S. citizen seeking to explore or commercially recover hard minerals—including manganese—from the deep seabed in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The streamlined permitting reduces administrative lead time for deep seabed manganese projects, though no new licenses or permits have been announced under the revised framework.

South32 Hermosa mine expansion draft approval

On March 6, 2026, the U.S. Forest Service released a draft Record of Decision and final Environmental Impact Statement for South32’s Hermosa mine expansion in Arizona. The draft approval would allow the project to expand from private land onto federal land in the Coronado National Forest, covering infrastructure including a primary access road and a dry‑stack tailings facility. Hermosa is the only advanced mine development project in the United States capable of producing manganese and zinc, both federally designated critical minerals. The project is part of the FAST‑41 federal permitting program, which aims to accelerate environmental reviews. A final decision has not yet been issued, but the draft approval signals strong regulatory momentum toward domestic manganese production.

Show the sequence of major regulatory actions affecting manganese mining in 2026 across the four covered jurisdictions.Surviving regulation claims and their selected evidence. Event, jurisdiction, date, and regulatory instrument.

The timeline includes: NOAA final rule effective Jan 21 (US); Gabon minister statement Feb 11; South32 Hermosa draft ROD Mar 6; Oman concession signing Apr 25; India 8th tranche auction launch Jul 15.

International Supply Diversification: India’s Auction System and Oman’s Concession

India’s competitive auction mechanism and Oman’s bilateral concession are expanding the geographic footprint of manganese exploration and production, with different implications for investor access and project lead times.

India’s eighth tranche of critical mineral auctions

India’s Ministry of Mines launched the eighth tranche of e‑auction for 20 critical and strategic mineral blocks across nine states on July 15, 2026. Of these, 13 are newly identified and 7 are offered for rebidding. The blocks include manganese along with molybdenum, graphite, vanadium, rare earth elements, lithium, and others. The auction brings the total number of critical mineral blocks offered to 88, of which 56 have already been successfully auctioned, reflecting growing industry confidence in India’s mining reforms. The minerals are targeted for clean energy technologies, electric mobility, advanced manufacturing, defense, and aerospace. Successful bidders gain exploration and mining rights, though specific manganese‑block sizes and resource estimates were not disclosed.

Oman’s mining concession with Manganese Majan

On April 25, 2026, the Government of Oman signed a mining concession agreement with Manganese Majan Company for Concession Area No 25B in North Sharqiyah Governorate. The concession covers approximately 747 square kilometers and has a 25‑year term. Manganese Majan is a joint venture between Al Ferdous Mining Company (Omani) and Farco Iranian Company, both with expertise in manganese exploration, mining, and processing. The rights include exploration, mining, and construction of processing plants and mineral beneficiation equipment. The site was awarded through a competitive tender via the Ministry’s Taqa platform. The concession is part of Oman Vision 2040’s objective to diversify mineral‑sector activity.

Comparison of supply‑access models

India’s auction system provides transparent, competitive access with a proven track record (56 blocks auctioned), but investors face lead times from auction to production that can extend several years. Oman’s bilateral concession offers longer‑term certainty (25 years) and includes explicit processing infrastructure requirements, but is limited to a single block and joint‑venture structure. Both models impose local content or processing obligations—India through strategic mineral end‑use requirements and Oman through mandatory processing plant development.

Downstream Processing Mandates and Compliance Pressure: The Gabon Export Ban

Timeline and scope of the ban

Gabon’s mining minister stated on February 11, 2026, that energy shortages will not be accepted as a reason for missing the 2029 deadline. The ban applies to raw manganese ore exports; all miners must submit detailed implementation timelines showing measurable progress toward domestic processing. Gabon exported 9.4 million metric tons of manganese in 2024, down 5.3% from the previous year, with the vast majority shipped in raw form. The ban would redirect that volume to domestic refineries, fundamentally altering supply flows.

Government response to industry concerns

Operators, including France’s Eramet, have expressed willingness to cooperate but cited power limitations as a constraint on building refining capacity. The minister countered that “energy is a false debate,” pointing to existing processes that reduce energy use by 40 to 60% in manganese processing. All companies must submit implementation timelines and show measurable progress. The government’s firm stance leaves operators with a binary choice: invest in domestic refining facilities or lose access to Gabon’s manganese ore.

Implications for major operators

Eramet, the dominant operator in Gabon, faces the most immediate compliance pressure. Given the 9.4 million ton export base, the required capital expenditure for refineries is substantial. The 40–60% energy reduction potential cited by the minister suggests that alternative processing technologies exist, but their commercial‑scale deployment in Gabon’s energy‑constrained environment remains unproven. The ban creates a clear timeline (2029) by which all manganese mined in Gabon must be processed domestically, aligning with the government’s strategy to capture more value from its mineral resources.