Pheonix Research - Editorial Index
Editorial analysis anchored to industries, segments, and the market intelligence behind them.
A cosmetic-grade USP 38 lanolin offer sits at USD 14,700 a tonne while the blended figure implied by world trade is USD 4,556. The gap is not a data error - it is the market's actual shape, and it is why the shrinking Australian wool clip has not yet moved the price most buyers pay.
Under one decree, autoparts imports from covered origins fell 39.5% and plastics fell 9.6%. The 4.11x gap is not enforcement — it is whether a domestic alternative exists. Mexico imported 78.26% of its chemicals in 2025 and its petrochemical capacity fell 35.9%, so the tariff can re-price supply long before it can replace it.
3.98 per cent is a fertiliser number. The 3.70 per cent of rock tonnage that goes into a furnace carries 8.70 per cent of the value and is priced by a tariff and a permit rather than a reserve — which is why three growth rates can all be right and only one of them is a decision.
Australia's shorn wool clip is forecast 12.6% smaller this season. Lanolin is a by-product of scouring that clip, so the 2026 pharmaceutical and cosmetic ingredient market is already contracted — and the pharmacopoeia-grade buyer has no substitute.
Refinery additives are dosed against specific units, not barrels, so Europe’s 28 closed or converted refineries did not shrink the market — they relocated it.
Our olefins forecast grows at 5.9% to 2033. Europe is closing 9% of its chemical capacity. Those are not opposing facts — Europe's exit is how the global number is achieved.
