Pheonix Research - Editorial Index
Editorial analysis anchored to industries, segments, and the market intelligence behind them.
Prestige cuvées are 4.6 per cent of Champagne's export bottles and 15.7 per cent of its export value — about EUR 81.91 a bottle, or 3.41 times the average. Brut non-vintage is 77.9 per cent of the bottles at EUR 20.06, below the average. The pyramid is a spike.
Champagne's 16,460 growers and 120 cooperatives shipped 74.2 million bottles for EUR 1.3 billion in 2025. The 410 houses shipped 191.9 million for EUR 4.4 billion. Per bottle that is EUR 17.52 against EUR 22.93 — in the same appellation, under the same method, and the grower premium is a discount.
The appellation is carrying 1.28 billion bottles — EUR 27.42 billion of wine at current ex-cellar values, against EUR 5.7 billion of annual revenue. That is 4.81 years of shipments against a stated target of 4.2, roughly 162 million bottles more than the appellation wants to hold.
Gin sells at USD 2.53 a litre in the Philippines and USD 14.27 at the world average — 5.64 times apart. The largest volume block in the category is also the one where the biggest participant cannot be sized, and where a Western trademark competes carrying premium-brand costs.
Pernod Ricard closed Beefeater's visitor centre while running a "Spirit of London" campaign. Bacardi renovated Bombay Sapphire's. Same asset, opposite decisions — because a distillery gate is a distribution channel whose value is inversely proportional to the brand's reach.
Fever-Tree's UK revenue fell 2 per cent while gin volume rose 1 per cent, and 45 per cent of its revenue now comes from beyond tonic. The premium mixer grew on a gin-and-tonic occasion that is not where the world's gin volume is growing — and its EBITDA margin fell from 13.7 to 11.3 per cent proving it.
A 5 per cent ready-to-drink serve pays GBP 1.33 of duty per litre against GBP 11.48 for a 37.5 per cent gin — 8.63 times less, and 13.1 per cent less per unit of alcohol. In 2025 the RTD was the only major beverage alcohol category to grow. That is not a taste shift. It is a tax schedule.
Gilbey's added 40 per cent with no still of its own. Diageo owns three of the world's eight biggest gin brands and treats the category as 4 per cent of net sales. In a market where duty is two-thirds of a value bottle, the liquid is a toll service and the name is the only asset left to arbitrage.
Gin is the cheapest liquid in premium spirits at USD 14.27 a litre, and almost every number in its cost stack is fixed by law or by plant. The exception is juniper — the one input with no futures market, no substitute and no disclosure, and the one input the product standard lets a producer skip entirely.
100 per cent agave is now 71 per cent of tequila production — 415.4 million litres against 168.1 million of mixto. But US supplier revenue fell 4.1 per cent in the same year, because the plant that carries the claim got cheap, not because the consumer paid for it.
Tequila produced a record 583.5 million litres, up 17.7 per cent, while US supplier revenue fell 4.1 per cent and blue agave collapsed 66 per cent to MXN 7.62 a kilo. Three series, three directions — and the record is a supply event, not a demand one.
The top ten countries make almost 90 per cent of the world's rosé and three of them make two thirds — while a third of demand sits in France and the growth comes from the UK, Germany and the US, which produce almost none of it.
Rosé is 8.5 per cent of world wine volume and 8.9 per cent of its value — and it now sells at a 1.05 price ratio to the wine average. Volume grows 0.20 per cent to 2033 while value compounds at 4.80: the whole forecast is price and mix inside a shrinking category.
Champagne volume fell 1.95 per cent in 2025. Revenue fell 12.31 per cent. Revenue per bottle went from EUR 23.95 to EUR 21.42 — the most protected wine appellation in the world taking a double-digit price cut in a single year.
Japan pays EUR 32.03 a bottle, the United States EUR 26.00, the UK EUR 21.50 and France EUR 17.98 — for wine from a single appellation made to a single set of rules. The home market is the discount market, and that inverts the category's whole value logic.
Gin grew 1 per cent in volume, 2 per cent in value and 3 per cent in price — three rates that don't reconcile, and the gap is the story. At USD 14.27 a litre it is the cheapest liquid in premium-plus spirits, and the low price is the growth engine rather than the symptom.
The Philippines is the largest volume block in world gin — 51 million cases across one portfolio that doesn't even separate gin — while the UK sits 40 per cent below its peak. The volume centre and the value centre of the category are in different countries, which makes a global average price a poor instrument.
Maharashtra sold 12.1 million litres of grape wine in 2024-25, up 14.2 per cent and doubled in a decade — and it is 0.058 per cent of world volume. India's beer market is sized at USD 6.85 billion; its wine market has no number, and the reasons are tax and distribution rather than demand.
US winery direct-to-consumer shipping moved 0.28 per cent of the world's wine volume and 0.73 per cent of its value in 2025 — at USD 49.55 a bottle against a world average of USD 19.06 — and it shrank 15 per cent in volume while price per bottle rose 11. Direct is a price channel, not a distribution solution.
Treasury Wine Estates earned A$138.1 a case at the gate on 2.7 per cent less volume: revenue per case rose 10.2 per cent while cost per case rose 2.5, turning A$53.60 of gross profit into A$64.70. But organic revenue fell 1.1 per cent, and eighteen points of cash conversion are sitting in inventory.
