Pheonix Research - Editorial Index
Editorial analysis anchored to industries, segments, and the market intelligence behind them.
Pernod Ricard completed the sale of Jacob's Creek, Campo Viejo and Brancott Estate to Accolade's owner on 30 April 2025, creating Vinarchy — 32 million cases at roughly A$46.88 each, against Treasury Wine Estates' A$138.10. In a market that cannot grow volume, that gap is the whole strategy.
De-alcoholised wine now has a legal definition, a comparative claim and a permitted route for sparkling. It does not have a volume series — and the reason is structural: a litre of 0.0% wine is not a vineyard litre.
The EU's December 2025 wine package pays growers to grub up vines, caps crisis distillation at 25 per cent of each member state's envelope, and defines "alcohol-free" for the first time. Four measures, and every one of them is a supply-side admission.
China imported 207 million litres of wine in 2025 — 1.0 per cent of what the world drank. It paid USD 6.86 a litre for it, at least 1.6 times the world export average. That is how a rounding error becomes a price-relevant buyer.
Wine's volume falls 1.19 per cent a year and its value rises 3.81 — which means the entire forecast is a price rise of 5.06 per cent a bottle. At 2025 prices and 2033 volume the market would be USD 48.3 billion smaller than it is today.
RTD alcoholic beverages grow at 8.00 per cent against wine's 3.81 — but from a base 12.4 times smaller. Wine adds USD 184.2 billion of value to RTD's 36.35. Growth rate is not value creation.
Premium wine is 14.05 per cent of the world wine market and grows 1.4 times as fast — worth 20.7 per cent of all the value the category will add. Its share moves 0.215 points a year, which is a drift, not a revolution.
Wine led spirits by USD 34.7 billion in 2025 and is growing 1.19 points a year slower. Run both report's own published rates and the lead is gone in 2031 — leaving USD 19.9 billion the other way by 2033.
Canada imported CAD 67.3 million of green tea in 2024. No trade line separates matcha from sencha — and Japan's tencha harvest just fell into a five-year supply lag.
