Global Sparkling Wine Market Report, Size & Forecast 2026–2033

How 3.33 billion bottles were built, and from what

Sparkling wine is the one part of the wine market where a single appellation publishes its own share of the world, which makes the whole category measurable from primary sources without buying anybody's estimate.

Champagne shipped 266.1 million bottles in 2025 for EUR 5.7 billion excluding taxes. The Comité Champagne states that this is 8 per cent of global sparkling wine consumption by volume and 31 per cent by value, on 0.5 per cent of the world's vineyard area. Two divisions follow from those shares: 266.1 ÷ 0.08 = 3,326 million bottles, and EUR 5.7 billion ÷ 0.31 = EUR 18.39 billion of sparkling wine value ex-cellar.

At EUR/USD 1.16 that is USD 21.33 billion at the gate. At a retail multiple of 2.5 — a Champagne bottle that leaves at EUR 21.42 is sold at roughly twice that in France and more in export markets — the category is USD 53.32 billion in 2025, forecast at USD 67.5 billion in 2033 at 3.00 per cent a year on 3,700 million bottles at 1.34 per cent.

One assumption carries the headline and it is the multiple. The volume is derived from Champagne's own stated share and is therefore only as good as that share; the value is derived from the same source plus the retail markup. Both are stated so the reader can move them, and the band at 2.2 to 2.8 times is the honest width of the answer.

Six appellations, 47 per cent of the bottles

The named appellations of the world publish their own shipments, and together they account for almost half the category. The other half is Prosecco outside its DOC, Asti, Spanish sparkling outside Cava, New World production and every bottle sold without an origin claim.

Two facts sit inside that table and they explain the whole category. Prosecco DOC alone ships 2.5 times Champagne's bottle count — 667 million against 266 million — and earns EUR 3.6 billion against Champagne's EUR 5.7 billion. The largest sparkling appellation in the world by volume earns 63 per cent of the smallest-but-one's revenue. Champagne is not the biggest appellation in this category; it is the most expensive one.

The price ladder: 3.9 times the average, and 0.98 times it

Divide each appellation's value by its bottles and the structure of the category appears.

Champagne is 8 per cent of the bottles and 31 per cent of the money because it sells at 3.875 times the category average. Prosecco is the largest appellation in the world and sells at 0.977 times the average — almost exactly the mean of a category it dominates by volume.

That is the single most useful commercial fact about sparkling wine: the category's value is not distributed like its volume, and the gap between the two is an appellation premium that has no equivalent elsewhere in beverage alcohol. Wine's most valuable appellation earns 3.9 times the category average per bottle; beer's largest brewer earns nothing of the kind.

Champagne discounted in 2025

Champagne's revenue fell from EUR 6.5 billion to EUR 5.7 billion — 12 per cent — on a shipment decline of 2 per cent. The arithmetic between those two numbers is the story of the year: revenue per bottle fell from EUR 23.99 to EUR 21.42, down 10.71 per cent.

The appellation cut its price. A category whose entire proposition is that it does not discount did so, on average, by more than a tenth, and did so after a year in which its largest export markets moved against it. That is not a demand collapse — 266 million bottles is close to the long-run level — it is a mix and a currency effect that landed on the revenue line.

56.5 per cent of Champagne leaves France. France itself takes 114.1 million bottles (42.9 per cent), the rest of the EU 49.6 million (18.6 per cent) and the rest of the world 102.4 million (38.5 per cent). Japan is the clearest illustration of what an appellation premium looks like in a single market: 13.3 million bottles for EUR 426 million, against the United Kingdom's 22.7 million for EUR 488 million — 59 per cent of the bottles for 87 per cent of the revenue.

Where the category actually grows: the middle of the ladder

The appellations that grew in 2025 are the ones priced in the middle: Crémant up 7.5 per cent to about 123 million bottles with exports now 41 per cent of production, and Conegliano Valdobbiadene up 8 per cent to 98 million. Prosecco DOC held its value, up 1.1 per cent. Champagne fell in value by 12 per cent and Cava fell 13 per cent to just over 190 million bottles.

Read together, that is a category compressing towards its middle. The bottom (Cava at the cheapest price points) is losing volume; the top (Champagne) is losing price; and the €5–12 bottle is taking share from both. It is the same premiumisation story that is told about wine as a whole, except that in sparkling the premium tier is not the most expensive one — it is the one that costs more than Cava and less than Champagne.

The forecast reflects that: 1.34 per cent of volume growth and 3.00 per cent of value growth, which is a category growing slightly faster than still wine and doing it by holding a price line rather than expanding a vineyard.

One bottle in ten of German sparkling is alcohol-free

Alcohol-free sparkling wine sold more than 22 million bottles in Germany alone and is expected to grow at double-digit rates globally. Against a German sparkling market of 234 million bottles that is 9.4 per cent of the domestic category — the same penetration that alcohol-free beer has reached in the same country.

That is not a coincidence and it is the most interesting thing in this report. Germany is the only large market that measures its alcohol-free production separately, and in both categories it reports roughly one litre in ten. If that ratio travels — and the December 2025 European labelling agreement has now given it a legal form to travel in — then alcohol-free is not a niche hanging off sparkling wine. It is the growth format of a category whose volume is flat.

The forecast, and the one number it turns on

The forecast is 3,326 to 3,700 million bottles at 1.34 per cent and USD 53.32 to 67.5 billion at 3.00 per cent. Volume grows slowly because the category's two largest appellations by volume are mature in their home markets; value grows faster because the middle of the ladder is where the new consumer enters.

It turns on one number, and it is not volume. It is whether Champagne restores the EUR 23.99 average it earned in 2024. At 3.9 times the category average, a 10.7 per cent price cut at the top removes more value from this category than a decade of growth at the bottom adds. The category's forecast is a bet that 2025 was a currency and mix year rather than a re-rating — and the appellations that grew in 2025 did so at prices that cannot replace the money Champagne lost.

The last thing worth saying is what sparkling is to the wine market. It is 10.09 per cent of a USD 528.4 billion market by value, growing faster than the market it sits in, and it is the only part of wine where the consumer is buying an occasion rather than a liquid. That is why its premium survives at 3.9 times the average — and why a discount at the top of it matters more than anything happening underneath.

Companion analysis

The Wine Market Grows Because the Bottle Got Dearer establishes the mechanism the whole wine complex runs on — value up 3.81 per cent a year on volume down 1.19, which is 5.06 per cent of realisation — and sparkling is the one part of the market running it backwards. Champagne's revenue fell from EUR 6.5 billion to EUR 5.7 billion on shipments down 2 per cent, taking revenue per bottle from EUR 23.99 to EUR 21.42, −10.71 per cent. The most protected appellation in the world discounted by more than a tenth in a year, and the appellations that grew — Crémant at +7.5 per cent to about 123 million bottles, Conegliano Valdobbiadene at +8 per cent to 98 million — grew into prices that cannot replace what the top of the ladder gave up. So sparkling is 10.09 per cent of the wine market and grows 3.00 per cent against that market's 3.81: slower than the category it sits inside, which is not what a premiumisation story predicts. The concentration is still extreme — Champagne is 8 per cent of the world's sparkling bottles and 31 per cent of its value, at EUR 21.42 a bottle against a category average of EUR 5.53, 3.875 times, with Prosecco DOC the largest appellation in the world at 667 million bottles and 0.977 times that average. China Drinks One Per Cent of the World's Wine and Sets Its Price supplies the corroboration from the demand side: sparkling was the only category to grow in Chinese imports in 2025, at +5.88 per cent, in a market that fell a quarter.

Competitive Landscape

Competitive Landscape

Sparkling wine is three appellations and a long tail, and 2025 separated them more violently than any year in the category’s recent history. The same twelve months produced Prosecco at +1.1 per cent, Champagne at −2.1 per cent and Cava at −12.88 per cent. That spread is not a demand story. It is three different business models being priced by the same consumer at the same time.

Within Prosecco the split matters: 606.9 million bottles of white and 60.4 million of rosé, and 82 per cent of production exported to 164 countries. The United States is its largest export market at 23.8 per cent of exports and +8.0 per cent between January and September 2025, against the introduction of tariffs; the United Kingdom grew 1.1 per cent, France 21.1 per cent to overtake Germany into third, Germany 3.1 per cent, with Greece at 22.4 per cent and Mexico at 14.5 per cent. Growth in every direction at once is what a volume-led model looks like.

Cava’s numbers are the opposite. Cava de Guarda, 88 per cent of the appellation, fell 14.52 per cent. The export damage is concentrated and legible: Belgium −13.54 per cent, the United States −18.42 per cent, the United Kingdom −11.99 per cent — its three largest foreign markets, all down double digits, on 37,299 hectares farmed by 6,200 grower families across 330 wineries. Domestic sales held at 76.1 million bottles, 40.1 per cent of the total, with the EU taking 62.5 million and third countries 51.4 million.

The top of the market is five balance sheets wide

LVMH’s champagne houses shipped 60.1 million bottles in 2025 — 22.59 per cent of the appellation. Their volume has fallen in each of the last two years, from 66.5 million to 61.7 million to 60.1 million, and the group’s Wines & Spirits profit from recurring operations fell 25 per cent to EUR 1,016 million at a 19.0 per cent margin. In the United States the concentration is sharper still: Veuve Clicquot and Moët & Chandon together account for 63 per cent of a Champagne market of approximately 1.5 million cases. Two brands from one group hold nearly two thirds of the most valuable export market in the appellation.

Slightly more than half of world sparkling is in nobody’s statistics

Six named appellations publish their own shipments — the three above, plus Conegliano Valdobbiadene’s 98 million bottles, roughly 123 million of Crémant and 234 million of German sparkling — and together they are 1,578.1 million bottles, or 47 per cent of the world total. The remaining 1,747.9 million bottles, 52.55 per cent, is Prosecco outside its DOC, Asti, Spanish sparkling outside Cava, New World tank-method wine and every bottle sold without an origin claim. No consortium counts it and no regulator measures it, and it is the larger half of the category. The structure described in this chapter covers 47 per cent of the market; the other 52.55 per cent can only be described.

Value Chain

Value Chain

The chain has two stages that carry the economics and neither of them is the vineyard. One is time on the lees; the other is the distance between the cellar door and the shelf, which in this category is a multiple of 2.5 times.

Time is the input, and it is carried as inventory

Traditional-method sparkling is fermented twice — once in tank, once in the bottle — and the bottle then rests on its lees for a minimum of fifteen months for a non-vintage and three years for a vintage under the appellation’s rules, before riddling, disgorgement and dosage. Charmat, the route Prosecco takes, performs that second fermentation in a pressurised tank over weeks. The two methods differ by roughly a factor of twenty in the time between harvest and sale, and that difference is the price gap. Champagne’s average bottle left the cellar at EUR 21.42 in 2025; Prosecco’s consortium reports EUR 3.6 billion of sales on 667 million bottles, which is EUR 5.40.

The cost of that time is visible on a balance sheet. Champagne is holding 1.28 billion bottles of stock, about 4.8 years of sales against a target of 4.2. At EUR 21.42 a bottle that is EUR 27.42 billion of inventory standing in cellars against EUR 5.7 billion of annual appellation revenue — the appellation carries almost five years of its own turnover in a product that cannot be sold faster without cutting its price. That is why the Comité sets a yield every year, and why it is as much a credit officer as an agricultural body.

Ex-cellar is not retail, and the gap is 2.5 times

Two entry points exist in this chain and this report uses both, so they are stated together. At EUR 5.53 a bottle ex-cellar the 3,326 million bottles of world sparkling are worth EUR 18.39 billion at the cellar door. The headline in this report is USD 53.32 billion at retail. At our working rate of USD 1.16 those are the same market separated by a 2.5-fold chain multiple — freight, duty, importer, distributor and shelf margin. A figure quoted from one end of this chain cannot be compared with a figure quoted from the other, and the Champagne premium of 3.875 times the category average is measured ex-cellar, where like is compared with like.

What happened to the price in 2025

Champagne’s revenue fell 12 per cent on 2.1 per cent less volume, which is a 10.71 per cent fall in revenue per bottle, from EUR 23.99 to EUR 21.42. In a chain carrying 4.8 years of stock, a price cut of that size does not land on the wine being sold. It lands on the inventory. The appellation’s response was to cut the 2025 yield to 9,000 kilograms per hectare — about 258 million bottles against sales expectations of roughly 270 million, a planned destock of 12 million bottles — after a 2024 harvest already set at 10,000 kilograms, itself 12 per cent below 2023.

The transfer that produces is explicit. The Fédération des Vignerons Indépendants argued for 10,500 kilograms per hectare and warned that some estates cannot survive below 9,500. The appellation set 9,000, and the Comité’s own co-president acknowledged that the normal formula was suspended because it would have produced yields too low for many growers. The houses hold the stock; the growers absorb the correction.

Where the margin is not

At the bottom of the chain, Cava shows what happens without scarcity: 190 million bottles, down 12.88 per cent, on a static 37,299 hectares, with 60 per cent of its volume exported into markets that fell at once. There is no yield mechanism worth defending a price with, and the volume left. The value chain of sparkling wine is a chain of time: the appellations that can ration time keep their price, and the one that cannot lost an eighth of its volume in a single year.

Investment Activity

Investment Activity

The largest owner in the appellation cut its capital spending by more than half in two years, and the appellation cut its harvest. Those two decisions are the investment story of sparkling wine in 2025, and they point the same way.

LVMH: capex down 58.7 per cent while profit halved

The order of those declines is the finding. Capital spending fell faster than revenue, and profit fell faster than capital spending. Revenue was down 18.8 per cent over two years, capex down 58.7 per cent and profit down 51.8 per cent — a business protecting its cash conversion by stopping building. Champagne volume fell 9.6 per cent over the same period and Cognac fell further, from 83.2 million to 74.6 million bottles. The group describes its response as a programme to boost efficiency and reduce costs across the Wines & Spirits houses, and it held its champagne share at 22 per cent of appellation shipments while doing it.

That is what the top of this category looks like in a downturn: share defended, volume conceded, capex withdrawn. It is a rational response, and it is also why the appellation’s supply mechanism had to do the work that investment would otherwise have done.

The appellation’s own investment was a harvest cut

With private capital stepping back, the only supply decision taken in 2025 was collective. The Comité set 9,000 kilograms per hectare, a cut from 10,000 in 2024, which was itself 12 per cent below 2023. Stocks stood at 1.28 billion bottles, or 4.8 years, against a 4.2-year target, and the usual formula was suspended because applying it would have pushed yields below what many growers could farm profitably.

Read as an investment, that is a decision to forgo roughly 12 million bottles of production in order to protect the price of 1.28 billion bottles of stock — EUR 27.42 billion of inventory at the 2025 average price. On any measure that is the largest capital allocation made anywhere in sparkling wine this year, and it was made by a committee rather than a board.

Prosecco invests in tanks; Cava invested in nothing

Prosecco’s capital base is pressure-tank capacity, not cellars, so its investment cycle is short and the cost of growth is low — which is why it could add 1.1 per cent of volume in the same year Champagne sold less. The consortium publishes no capex figure and does not need to: the constraint on Prosecco is hectares, not time.

Cava is the cautionary case. 37,299 hectares, 330 wineries and 6,200 grower families produced 190 million bottles, down 12.88 per cent, with its three largest export markets down between 11.99 and 18.42 per cent. An asset base that cannot be reduced and a volume that can is the definition of a sector that will consolidate by closure.

What nobody is building

There is no greenfield Champagne house, no new appellation, and no capacity programme in the public record aimed at the fastest-growing part of the category — de-alcoholised sparkling. The one product class that has just been given a legal definition, with 22 million bottles already sold in Germany alone, has no disclosed capital behind it from any major. The next investment cycle in this category is not in the vineyards; it is in the separation equipment.

Technology & Innovation

Technology and Innovation

The technology of sparkling wine is a binary choice made at the press, and everything else in the category — price, capital, inventory, appellation rules — follows from it.

Bottle or tank: twenty times the time, four times the price

Traditional method performs the second fermentation in the bottle that will be sold, then holds the wine on its lees for a minimum of fifteen months for a non-vintage and three years for a vintage under Champagne’s rules, before riddling, disgorgement and dosage. Charmat performs the same fermentation in a pressurised tank over weeks. The wine is different, the mousse is different, and the industrial consequence is total: one method requires a cellar, an inventory and a credit line; the other requires a tank.

That single choice produces a EUR 21.42 average bottle at the cellar door in Champagne and EUR 5.40 in Prosecco, on the same category of product, in the same year. No other beverage category in this segment has a technology decision that explains a fourfold price difference so cleanly.

Where the innovation actually went in 2025

Not into the wine. The genuinely new product class in sparkling is the removal of alcohol, and it acquired a European legal vocabulary on 23 February 2026, when the Council adopted the modernised wine package defining ‘alcohol-free’ below 0.5 per cent and ‘0.0%’ below 0.05 per cent and introducing digital labels and pictograms. Germany already sells 22 million bottles of alcohol-free sparkling. That is the only segment of this category with a new legal name, a new consumer and no incumbent capacity disclosed.

The technical difficulty is specific and worse than in beer. Removing ethanol from a sparkling wine removes body and disturbs the balance the dosage exists to correct — so the process has to be applied either to the base wine before the second fermentation, which changes the mousse, or to the finished wine after disgorgement, which costs the dosage and some of the aromatics. That is why de-alcoholised sparkling tends to be made by the tank method rather than the traditional one, and why the product that wins this segment will probably not be a Champagne.

Precision and sustainability are marginal; measurement is not

Quality innovation here is incremental — lees time, reserve wine, dosage level, and the appellation’s rules governing all three. Champagne holds a reserve of still wine from previous harvests whose use is regulated, which makes the winemaker’s most powerful tool partly a compliance exercise.

The gap that matters is statistical. 1,747.9 million bottles — 52.55 per cent of the world’s sparkling — appears in no consortium’s accounts. Slightly more than half of a USD 53.32 billion category is estimated rather than measured, and the margins, prices and growth rates reported for it are built from trade surveys. In a category whose incumbents have rationed supply by law for a century, the most valuable technology available is a production statistic.

Market Risk

Market Risk

1. The 15 per cent US tariff is locked in to 2029, and wine got no exemption. The EU–US agreement reached at Turnberry entered into force on 1 July 2026 after the European Parliament approved it on 16 June, fixing a 15 per cent tariff on the vast majority of EU exports including wine and spirits, with a sunset clause running to 31 December 2029. The trade asked repeatedly for a sector-specific carve-out and did not get one. The United States is Prosecco’s largest export market at 23.8 per cent of exports and Champagne’s largest by value: a 15 per cent tariff is now a permanent feature of this category’s most important market.

2. The tail risk is not 15 per cent, it is 100 per cent. On 15 June 2026 the US President threatened a 100 per cent tax on all Champagne and wines from France over France’s digital services tax, and separately ordered a trade halt with Spain. The US Trade Representative opened a Section 301 review of wine with public hearings on 7–9 July 2026. A 15 per cent tariff is a margin problem a distributor can partly absorb. A punitive rate is existential for the French half of this report — and the most valuable product in this category is French.

3. Champagne is holding 4.8 years of stock and cutting its harvest. 1.28 billion bottles against a 4.2-year target, a yield cut to 9,000 kg/ha producing about 258 million bottles against roughly 270 million of expected sales, and a planned destock of 12 million bottles. That protects price and transfers the cost to growers who say they cannot survive below 9,500 kg/ha. If the correction outlasts the stock, the appellation’s cohesion — its only real asset — is what gets tested.

4. Cava lost an eighth of its volume in one year. −12.88 per cent overall and −18.42 per cent into the United States, against Champagne’s −2.1 and Prosecco’s +1.1. The bottom of the ladder is where a downturn is paid, and on an average bottle of EUR 5.53 at the cellar door there is no margin left to absorb a tariff.

5. Basis: ex-cellar and retail differ by 2.5 times. Champagne’s EUR 21.42 is a cellar-door price; this report’s USD 53.32 billion is retail; the two are separated by a 2.5-fold chain multiple at USD 1.16. Mixing them misstates a comparison by a factor of two and a half, and it is the ratio between them — not either level — that the forecast actually rests on.

6. Concentration on both sides of the trade. LVMH is 22.59 per cent of appellation shipments with profit down 51.8 per cent in two years and capex down 58.7 per cent; two of its brands are 63 per cent of the US Champagne market. The category’s price is set by a handful of balance sheets, and their investment behaviour this year was to stop investing.

7. What is overstated: that sparkling is a growth category. Volume grew 1.1 per cent in the only appellation that grew at all, and fell in both of the appellations that carry the money. What is understated: that 52.55 per cent of the world’s sparkling sits outside every published series — the part expected to grow is the part nobody counts.

Regulatory Landscape

Regulatory Landscape

Sparkling wine is the only category in this segment where the regulation sets the quantity as well as the name. That is the whole of its legal position, and it explains both why Champagne can defend a price and why nobody can enter its market.

The appellation is a supply authority, not a label

Champagne’s advantage is not the vineyard and not the brand: it is the annual yield decision. The Comité Champagne sets the maximum yield in kilograms per hectare each year, targets an instant stock ratio measured in years of sales, and governs the reserve wine held back from previous harvests. In 2025 those instruments were set as follows:

The formula that normally produces that number was suspended in 2025 because it would have implied yields too low for many growers, and the independent growers’ federation, which had argued for 10,500 kg/ha, warned that estates cannot survive below 9,500. A legally enforceable maximum harvest is a cartel with a statute behind it, and it is the only reason a bottle of Champagne has a price floor. No equivalent mechanism exists across the 52.55 per cent of world sparkling that belongs to no appellation.

Europe: the wine package binds this category directly

The Council of the EU adopted a modernised wine-sector package on 23 February 2026, setting ‘alcohol-free’ below 0.5 per cent alcohol, ‘0.0%’ below 0.05 per cent, and ‘reduced-alcohol’ for products above 0.5 per cent but at least 30 per cent below standard strength, replacing the earlier ‘alcohol-light’. It introduces digital labels and pictograms and exempts exported wine from EU ingredient and nutrition listing. Underlying all of it is Regulation (EU) 1308/2013, which governs protected designations of origin, oenological practices and labelling for wine across the bloc.

Unlike the spirits category, this regulation binds sparkling wine directly — and that matters commercially, because the fastest-growing product in this category, de-alcoholised sparkling, has just been given a legal vocabulary in the same instrument that governs the appellations it will compete against.

United States: a tariff, not a standard

The United States regulates wine through TTB labelling and standards of identity, and since 2026 through the tariff that matters more than any of them. The 15 per cent rate on European wine and spirits entered into force on 1 July 2026 and runs, under its sunset clause, to 31 December 2029. On top of it sits a live Section 301 review of wine with hearings in Washington on 7–9 July 2026, and a political threat of 100 per cent on French Champagne and wine issued on 15 June 2026. For a category that exports 82 per cent of Prosecco’s production and more than half of Champagne’s, the US position is a trade instrument rather than a labelling one.

What the regulation does not do, and why that matters

No rule anywhere requires a producer to publish a volume. No regulator defines ‘premium’. Nothing constrains the number of brands, the price, or the claim to be the world’s best-selling fizz. The appellations regulate themselves; slightly more than half of the category is regulated by nobody. A legal monopoly over quantity is the strongest position in beverage alcohol, and it is held by the smallest of the three appellations by volume.

Sources

Every figure in this report that carries weight traces to one of the publishers below. The link goes to the publisher’s own site and the specific release is named so a reader can find it. Where a figure is our arithmetic on a published number rather than a published number itself, the closing paragraph of this block says so.

• Comité Champagne, the Champagne interprofessional committee, 2025 shipment review and annual press conference: champagne.fr. 266.1 million bottles, EUR 5.7bn excluding taxes, the 8 per cent volume and 31 per cent value shares of world sparkling, the 9,000 kilogram per hectare yield for 2025, the 34,200 hectares and the stock position of 1.28 billion bottles.
• Prosecco DOC Consortium, 2025 vintage and shipment data: proseccodoc.it. 667.0 million bottles, plus 1.1 per cent, EUR 3.6bn, the 606.9 million white and 60.4 million rose split, the 82 per cent exported to 164 countries and the destination growth rates.
• Consejo Regulador del Cava, 2025 results: cava.wine. 190.0 million bottles, minus 12.88 per cent, Cava de Guarda at minus 14.52 per cent, the Belgian, US and UK export declines, 37,299 hectares, 6,200 grower families and 330 wineries.
• Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco DOCG Consortium: prosecco.it. 98 million bottles and plus 8 per cent, the premium Prosecco tier in the six-appellation table.
• LVMH, 2025 annual results and the Wines and Spirits division: lvmh.com. Champagne shipments of 60.1 million bottles, 22.59 per cent of the appellation, the 66.5 to 61.7 to 60.1 million three-year series, profit from recurring operations of EUR 1,016m at a 19.0 per cent margin, revenue of EUR 5,358m, and operating investments falling from EUR 538m to EUR 222m.
• Council of the European Union, wine labelling agreement, formally adopted 23 February 2026: consilium.europa.eu. The alcohol-free and 0.0 per cent thresholds and the alcohol-reduced category.
• Office of the United States Trade Representative and the White House: ustr.gov. The 15 per cent tariff on European wine and spirits in force from 1 July 2026 with a sunset of 31 December 2029, the June 2026 threat against French Champagne, and the Section 301 wine review with hearings on 7 to 9 July 2026.

What is ours and not a publisher’s. The world total of 3,326 million bottles and the EUR 18.39bn of ex-cellar value are the Comité’s own stated shares divided into its own shipments, not a published world figure. The USD 21.33bn at the gate, the USD 53.32bn at retail, the USD 46.92 to 59.72bn band at 2.2 to 2.8 times, the USD 16.03 a bottle and the 10.09 per cent share of the USD 528.4bn wine market are all our arithmetic, and the multiple is the assumption that carries the headline. The 47 per cent named and 52.55 per cent unmeasured split is our addition of six published appellation series against the derived world total. The EUR 21.42 and EUR 5.40 ex-cellar comparison and the 2.5 times multiple between ex-cellar and retail are ours. The 3.00 per cent forecast and the 3,700 million bottle line are our model.